Communist Review - Viet Nam’s candidacy for a non-permanent seat in United Nations Security Council for 2020-2021 term is an important decision, concretizing the foreign policy in general and the policy on strengthening the Party and the State’s multilateral foreign relations in the new situation. It is necessary to fully understand the nature of the international situation and its impacts on the Security Council in the coming years, thereby contributing to defining our strategy to join this organization.

The world is undergoing profound changes, with the intersection of established and new traits. The current emerging features can be seen as follows:

Globalization continues to be the trend of the times because the basic elements of globalization since the Cold War have remained unchanged or even been strengthened. The international order has shifted from unipolar order to hegemonic, multi-powered, multi-centered, multi-layered one. The world economy is becoming a unified entity with an increasing linkage between countries and other entities, forming chains of global production and value. The development of science and technology creates a new global force of production and knowledge (1). Networks connecting subjects, layers in each field and different spheres of life are more and more interactive and intertwined (2).

Although peace, cooperation and mutual development remain the mainstream, the risk of war and local conflict is higher. In recent years, in the world, there have been many regional "hot spots", such as the war in Syria, escalating tensions in many countries in the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. Traditional and non-traditional security challenges are increasingly diverse, complex, unpredictable, transnational, and have long-term, severe, and widespread impacts on many countries and this cannot be addressed by a single country. New emerging security issues include cybersecurity, water resource security, environment security, climate change and extreme weather, fast-spreading epidemic, and financial security with issues like virtual money, technology finance, high-tech crime in the monetary and banking sectors, etc.

Although small and medium countries are becoming more and more important, big countries remain the main force shaping the face of the world. The difference today compared to the period during and immediately after the Cold War (3) is that the "the club of big countries" has more members. In addition to the US, China, Russia, there are several other centers of power, such as the European Union (EU), India, Japan, which are rising with the aim of joining this "club". Also, the strategic competition among major countries is increasing, especially that between the US and China. Besides, the tendency to pursue unilateral foreign policy, power and nationalism, protectionism has developed, starting from big countries, then spreading to the regions. These political characteristics and tendencies do not reverse but create a drag on globalization; bringing about difficulties in association and cooperation among countries; limiting efforts to democratize international life and protect legitimate and equal rights among nations and peoples.

Multilateralism plays an increasingly important role in international politics, but also faces challenges. After the Cold War, multilateral cooperation was appreciated and multilateral diplomacy played an increasingly important part in the foreign policy of other countries, as well as in the process of globalization. Up to now, a system of laws, institutions and mechanisms has been formed in various fields, at different levels with the participation of almost all countries, contributing to addressing many important issues in the world. Globalization with the dispersion of power, democratization, increasing interdependence among countries, and emerging transnational issues makes multilateral diplomacy become an objective need for countries to cooperate, compete, and settle conflicts of interest. Most countries, including major countries like the US and China, have the need to enforce multilateral foreign policy in order to guarantee their national security and interests. In the foreign policy of many countries today, multilateral diplomacy and bilateral diplomacy are of equal importance. However, some countries, especially large ones, tend to use multilateral diplomacy as a means of pursuing unilateral interests, causing multilateral institutions not to operate for the common interest of all members (4). The effectiveness of multilateral diplomacy in handling relations among countries is not high. Many populist or nationalist leaders tend to attach less importance to multilateral diplomacy (5).

The above mentioned features of the international situation have direct and multi-dimensional impacts on the United Nations Security Council in 2020-2021 term, during which Viet Nam is a non-permanent member, and these impacts are in the direction:

Firstly, the United Nations remains number one among the multilateral organizations and plays an essential role in international life. The Security Council is the most important institution of the United Nations and currently cannot be competed or replaced by any organization. The Security Council has this position because of its power and its activities to meet the needs of the international community in preventing and handling global security challenges. Legally, the Security Council is the only agency of the UN to maintain international peace and security and to be able to make binding decisions, including the use of force for all the member states of the UN. The Security Council has contributed to ending protracted conflicts in many regions of the world, such as in Serbia, Côte d'Ivoire, Mali, Libya, and West Sahara; it has actively participated in peacekeeping activities and at the moment it is implementing 14 peacekeeping missions in the areas of conflicts (6); it has provided effective support for many countries to deal with nuclear wars, terrorism, humanitarian crises, etc. Participation in the Security Council has become a policy target of many countries to promote interests and enhance national security.

Secondly, the workload and the work nature of the United Nations Security Council are becoming increasingly heavy and complex. Since its inception, the Security Council’s functions and duties as stipulated in Article 24 of the Charter of the United Nations have not basically changed. However, in reality, the scope of the Security Council’s activities is increasingly expanding. The main reason is that global security challenges are becoming more and more diverse and complex and the Security Council has the authority to address these challenges. On the Security Council's agenda, traditional security issues, such as preventing and handling the consequences of conflicts and wars, fighting against terrorism, etc.  continue to be present; at the same time, more and more non-traditional security issues, such as arms race, human rights, climate change, cybersecurity, humanitarian crises (both from natural disasters and from conflicts), illegal immigration (especially within Europe and from South American countries to America) have been discussed. Perspectives on security and security threats/challenges to international life as well as individual countries have changed in a broader, more comprehensive way, leading to the fact that many areas/issues such as economic, social, cultural, environmental, and technological aspects are also taken into consideration from this perspective. In addition, some countries tend to politicize and bring pure social and civil issues to the Security Council to serve unilateral interests. Therefore, the agenda of the Security Council is increasingly dense (7), with heavier workload, giving members of the Security Council less time to prepare for official meetings or major discussions.

Thirdly, the structure and operations of the United Nations Security Council reflect the power structure in current international relations characterized by the domination of major countries and the increasingly important role of small and medium countries. In other words, both powerful political trends and democratization trends in international political life have profound effects on the Security Council. Five permanent members of the Security Council are the decision makers regarding all UN activities. Reforming the council in a way that it includes more permanent members to increase representation has been questioned for many years and still remains unanswered. Up to now, most of the important resolutions of the Security Council have been compromised and decided by the permanent members before they are officially voted. However, all permanent members have equal veto power; therefore, no single member, even the US, can completely impose the agenda of the Security Council at its discretion.

Meanwhile, non-permanent member countries of the Security Council do not decide on building the agenda or approving the resolutions of the Security Council. However, these groups of countries still play a role in the Security Council due to the competition of force gathering among permanent members. Accordingly, non-permanent members can have their voice heard at the Security Council and strengthen their influence on major countries. They also have a more favourable condition to promote issues of common interest and less controversy, such as climate change, child protection, civilian protection, and cultural heritage preservation in armed conflicts, war consequence settlement, and post-war reconstruction, etc.

The structure of non-permanent member countries will partly affect the power relationship in the Security Council in the 2020-2021 period (8). The US, the UK and France have received the support from allied non-permanent members as well as from developing countries dependent on aid sources and economic relations with the US and the West. China increasingly dominates those who represent the African region through strengthening trade and investment relations in this region. Russia will retain influence over a number of non-permanent members in the traditional sphere of influence and among the leftist group of Latin American countries.

Fourthly, although competition and conflicts will increase within the framework of the United Nations Security Council, compromise is still the fundamental and consistent tendency. Increasing strategic competition between the US and China will complicate concerned issues at the Security Council. The US tends to be more and more unilateral and materialistic; less involved in some United Nations mechanisms that they deem impractical. Meanwhile, China is actively demonstrating the role and position of a big country, promoting participation in multilateral mechanisms; increasing influence on all three important aspects at the United Nations: Peace - security, development, human rights. Other permanent members of the Security Council also make adjustments in their policies. Russia is very adamant in matters that concern the space of its own survival and strategic interests, such as Ukraine, Venezuela, Syria, etc. England and France are more independent in some specific issues, such as Iran, climate change, and Israel-Pakistan conflict, and are more cautious in due to economic and trading benefits with major partners.

Consequently, cooperation in issues related to the vital interests of the permanent members and other hot issues at the Security Council, such as Syria, Venezuela, -ran, Iran, Myanmar, and Israeli-Palestinian conflict, etc. will not be achieved easily, even impossibly due to opposing stances. The permanent members will increase the use of bilateral and unilateral measures, including the use of veto power. Against the backdrop, non-permanent members will encounter more difficulties; and if they do not address them well, they cannot promote their roles, and if they miscalculate, they will have to pay a high price for their national interests.

The international and Security Council context with the above mentioned main characteristics will affect Viet Nam as a non-permanent member of the Security Council for the 2020-2021 tenure in both ways, bringing out both challenges and advantages. First and foremost, Viet Nam has to take responsibility for handling various time-consuming international issues. There will be many new issues for Viet Nam in the agenda of the Security Council in the coming time (9). Most of the disputes and conflicts that currently concern the Security Council are rooted in conflicts of interests among major countries, which are complicated and difficult to resolve. The increasing division and conflict among major powers will put greater pressure on Viet Nam to identify and express its stance on a number of issues at the Security Council. Meanwhile, the 2-year term of the non-permanent member is quite short, requiring Viet Nam to make great efforts in both effectively contributing to the international community and strengthening the status of the country. Besides, Viet Nam is also in an advantageous position to demonstrate its role in the Security Council. More importantly, Viet Nam, with its own internal strengths (10), is expected to well neutralize challenges and make full use of the advantages, excellently fulfill the role of a non-permanent member at the Security Council.

With the proper lines and policies of the Party and State, the strong determination and careful preparation in every aspect of the whole political system, it is certain that Viet Nam will successfully complete the role of a non-permanent member at the United Nations Security Council for the 2020-2021 tenure, thereby raising the level of multilateral foreign affairs, enhancing national status, and deepening bilateral relations with major countries, important partners, contributing to maintaining a peaceful and stable environment, serving the development and protection of the country's independence and territorial sovereignty./.

----------------------------------------------

(1) The world is considered to be in the early stage of the Fourth Industrial Revolution with the internet of things (IOT), artificial intelligence, mobile technology, 3D printing, cloud computing, etc.

(2) There has been the appearance of many hybrid fields and new organizational forms

(3) During the Cold War, the United States and the Soviet Union led two groups of forces, creating a confrontational bipolar order. After the Cold War, the United States emerged as the sole superpower and the world experienced a unipolar order for a short period

(4) The United States withdrew from the United Nations Human Rights Council, the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, the 5 + 1 Nuclear Agreement with Iran, United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), and threatened to withdraw from the World Trade Organization (WTO), etc. China created a series of new multilateral initiatives and mechanisms, such as "Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), etc. to counterbalance US-led institutions

(5) Typically, the foreign policy favored the bilateral approach of the present US President-Donald Trump’s administration, or the "unilateral when possible, multilateral when necessary" approach of the former US President G. Bush’s administration before

(6) 14 United Nations peacekeeping missions are currently deployed in Western Sahara (MINURSO), Dafur in Sudan (UNAMID), Democratic Republic of Congo (MON -4-USCO), Sudan (UNISFA), South Sudan (UNMISS), Lybia (MINUSMA), Mali (MINUSMA), Central African Republic (MINUSCA), Haiti (MINUJUSTH ), Cyprus (UNFICYP), Kosovo (UNMIK), Middle East (UNDOF, UNTSO, UNIFIL)

(7) The current number of meetings of the Security Council is over 400 meetings / year, doubling that of 2008 – 2009 period, and is expected to fluctuate at 410 - 430 meetings / year in the period of 2020 - 2021

(8) According to the voting results of June 7, 2019, Viet Nam, Estonia, Tunisia, Nigeria, Saint Vincent and Grenadines became non-permanent members of the Security Council for the term of 2020 - 2021. Currently, 6 countries including Canada and Norway, Ireland, Kenya, Djibouti, and India are campaigning for 5 positions of non-permanent members of the Security Council for the term 2021-2022 (replacing Germany, Belgium, South Africa, Indonesia and Dominica)

(9) The issues of disarmament of the United Nations Secretary-General, cybersecurity, etc. and a number of legal mechanisms that Viet Nam has not participated in (such as the International Criminal Court)

(10) The right lines and policies, the improvement in the status and the national aggregate strength, the experience in international integration in general and participation in the Security Council in particular, the important geopolitical position, etc.

Source: Communist Review No. 937 (3-2020)